Weekly Market Pulse - Week ending February 13, 2026
Market developments
Equities: Global equities traded in a volatile but directionally mixed environment as investors reassessed the impact of AI‑driven disruption, shifting macro data and sector rotations. U.S. markets saw a sharp rebound late in the week after prior selling, with tech stocks recovering from earlier weakness and the Dow Jones hovering around the 50,000 milestone despite intermittent pressure from retail sales and labour market uncertainties. Value and small‑cap segments outperformed high‑growth names, reflecting a continued rotation away from mega‑cap technology amid worries about overinvestment in the AI cycle. European equities also benefited from their more defensive and value‑oriented composition, avoiding some of the pressure seen in U.S. tech.
Fixed Income: Global fixed‑income markets experienced a strong rally as cooling inflation data shifted expectations toward a more accommodative central‑bank stance. U.S. Treasury yields dropped meaningfully, with the 10‑year yield sliding toward the 4% level after January CPI surprised to the downside, marking the slowest price growth since mid‑2025. This triggered a surge in bond buying as markets increasingly priced in higher probabilities of Fed rate cuts later in 2026, reversing part of the prior “higher‑for‑longer” narrative.
Commodities: Commodities saw mixed performance, with precious metals firming while oil prices edged modestly higher amid geopolitical tensions. Gold and silver rallied as investors weighed shifting expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, supported by strong safe‑haven demand, geopolitical uncertainty and resilient labour market data that delayed but did not eliminate prospects for monetary easing. Crude oil prices rose slightly, supported by supply concerns tied to U.S.–Iran tensions, even as a larger‑than‑expected build in U.S. inventories capped gains.
Performance (price return)
SECURITY |
PRICE |
WEEK |
1 MONTH |
3 MONTH |
YTD |
Equities ($Local) |
|
|
|
|
|
S&P/TSX Composite |
33,073.71 |
1.86% |
0.62% |
9.32% |
4.30% |
S&P 500 |
6,836.17 |
-1.39% |
-1.83% |
1.46% |
-0.14% |
NASDAQ |
22,546.67 |
-2.10% |
-4.91% |
-1.42% |
-2.99% |
DAX |
24,914.88 |
0.78% |
-1.99% |
3.63% |
1.73% |
NIKKEI 225 |
56,941.97 |
4.96% |
6.34% |
11.04% |
13.12% |
Shanghai Composite |
4,082.07 |
0.41% |
-1.37% |
1.30% |
2.85% |
Fixed Income (Performance in %) |
|
|
|
|
|
Canada Aggregate Bond |
244.31 |
0.66% |
1.17% |
0.56% |
1.40% |
US Aggregate Bond |
2373.26 |
0.65% |
0.86% |
1.57% |
1.04% |
Europe Aggregate Bond |
250.04 |
0.57% |
0.90% |
0.91% |
1.31% |
US High Yield Bond |
29.37 |
0.14% |
0.26% |
2.11% |
0.76% |
Commodities ($USD) |
|
|
|
|
|
Oil |
62.85 |
-1.10% |
2.78% |
7.09% |
9.46% |
Gold |
5034.28 |
1.41% |
9.76% |
20.68% |
16.55% |
Copper |
578.25 |
-1.69% |
-3.88% |
13.34% |
1.77% |
Currencies ($USD) |
|
|
|
|
|
US Dollar Index |
96.84 |
-0.82% |
-2.32% |
-2.34% |
-1.51% |
Loonie |
1.362 |
0.40% |
1.99% |
3.05% |
0.76% |
Euro |
0.8421 |
0.51% |
2.00% |
2.08% |
1.10% |
Yen |
152.64 |
3.00% |
4.26% |
1.26% |
2.67% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of February 13, 2026
Central Bank Interest Rates
Central Bank |
Current Rate |
March 2026 |
Bank of Canada |
2.25% |
2.24% |
U.S. Federal Reserve |
3.75% |
3.62% |
European Central Bank |
2.00% |
1.92% |
Bank of England |
3.75% |
3.55% |
Bank of Japan |
0.75% |
0.78% |
Source: Bloomberg, as of February 13, 2026
*Expected rates are based on bond futures pricing
Macro developments
Canada – No Notable Releases
No notable releases this week.
U.S. – Retail Sales Stall in December, Unemployment Rate Edges Lower, Inflation Slows to Eight‑Month Low
U.S. retail sales were flat in December 2025 after a solid gain in November and came in below expectations. Strength in categories like building materials and sporting goods was offset by declines in furniture, clothing, electronics and general merchandise. Core sales tied to GDP slipped 0.1%, marking the first decrease in three months.
The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in January 2026 as more people found jobs. Employment rose strongly while the labour force also expanded, lifting participation slightly. The broader U‑6 measure of unemployment declined to 8.0%, signalling improvement among discouraged and part‑time workers.
U.S. inflation cooled to 2.4% in January 2026, largely due to base effects and falling energy prices. Gasoline and fuel oil declined sharply, while used vehicle prices also fell. Core inflation eased to 2.5% year over year, though monthly core CPI rose slightly faster than in December.
International – Euro Area Growth Holds Steady, China’s Inflation Drops Sharply
The euro area economy grew 0.3% in Q4 2025, matching the previous quarter’s pace despite pressure from U.S. tariffs. Spain led major economies with strong consumption and investment, while Germany and Italy posted moderate gains and France lagged. Eurozone GDP grew 1.5% in 2025 and is expected to ease to about 1.2% in 2026 before improving in 2027.
China’s inflation slowed to 0.2% in January 2026 as food prices fell and non‑food inflation weakened. Declines in transport and housing costs deepened while clothing inflation picked up. Core inflation eased to 0.8%, its weakest level in six months and monthly CPI growth remained modest.
Quick look ahead
DATE |
COUNTRY / REGION |
EVENT |
|
SURVEY |
PRIOR |
15-Feb-26 |
Japan |
GDP Annualized SA QoQ |
4Q P |
1.60 |
-2.3 |
15-Feb-26 |
Japan |
GDP SA QoQ |
4Q P |
0.40 |
-0.6 |
17-Feb-26 |
United Kingdom |
ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths |
Dec |
5.10 |
5.1 |
17-Feb-26 |
Canada |
CPI NSA MoM |
Jan |
0.10 |
-0.2 |
17-Feb-26 |
Canada |
CPI YoY |
Jan |
2.40 |
2.4 |
18-Feb-26 |
United Kingdom |
CPI MoM |
Jan |
-0.45 |
0.4 |
18-Feb-26 |
United Kingdom |
CPI YoY |
Jan |
3.00 |
3.4 |
18-Feb-26 |
United Kingdom |
CPI Core YoY |
Jan |
3.03 |
3.2 |
19-Feb-26 |
Japan |
Natl CPI YoY |
Jan |
1.50 |
2.1 |
19-Feb-26 |
Japan |
Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY |
Jan |
2.00 |
2.4 |
19-Feb-26 |
Japan |
S&P Global Japan PMI Composite |
Feb P |
|
53.1 |
19-Feb-26 |
Japan |
S&P Global Japan PMI Mfg |
Feb P |
|
51.5 |
19-Feb-26 |
Japan |
S&P Global Japan PMI Services |
Feb P |
|
53.7 |
20-Feb-26 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI |
Feb P |
50.00 |
49.5 |
20-Feb-26 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
HCOB Eurozone Services PMI |
Feb P |
51.90 |
51.6 |
20-Feb-26 |
Eurozone Aggregate |
HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI |
Feb P |
51.50 |
51.3 |
20-Feb-26 |
United States |
GDP Annualized QoQ |
4Q A |
2.80 |
4.4 |
20-Feb-26 |
Canada |
Retail Sales MoM |
Dec |
-0.50 |
1.3 |
20-Feb-26 |
Canada |
Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM |
Dec |
0.10 |
1.7 |
20-Feb-26 |
Canada |
Industrial Product Price MoM |
Jan |
0.20 |
-0.6 |
20-Feb-26 |
Canada |
Raw Materials Price Index MoM |
Jan |
0.60 |
0.5 |
20-Feb-26 |
United States |
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI |
Feb P |
|
52.4 |
20-Feb-26 |
United States |
S&P Global US Services PMI |
Feb P |
|
52.7 |
20-Feb-26 |
United States |
S&P Global US Composite PMI |
Feb P |
|
53 |
P = Preliminary
A = Advance
The Asset Allocation Team at NEI Investments
Judith Chan, CFA – Vice President, Head of Asset Allocation
Mateo Marks, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation
Adam Ludwick, CFA – Director, Asset Allocation
Anthony Rago, B.A.Sc. – Senior Asset Allocation Analyst
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